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Expectation of Fed ra上海乌托邦s an over-reaction

Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t

上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.

On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.

We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦

year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.

We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦

uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.

Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦

According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.

上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n

ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h

as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.

We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t

here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信

Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.

The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信

r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc

ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.

That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d

ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信

rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the

Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.

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上海千花坊

We value the Chinese 上海千花坊ere we must guarante

tee steady business growth. In the future, we will increase investment in AI applications in the finance and manu

f上海千花坊acturing sector, enhance our AI technology, such as machine learning, natural language processing and deep learning, consolidate customer rela

tionships, as well as cultivate the new generation of AI talent for China,” He from SAS China said.上海千花坊

Since World War II, globalization came in two stages. From 1945 to roughly 1975, the United States, Western Europe, and Japan上海千花坊品茶微信

achieved steady economic growth, with the benefits of that growth spread widely throughout the population. In F

rance, this period is called “30 glorious years” and in Germany it is known as the “economic miracle”.

The second stage of globalization started in the late 1970s and has continued until today with a process of reform and open上海千花坊

ing-up not only in China but in countries of the former Soviet Union and in India.

This has been great for the world. China alone has lifted more than 850 million peopl

e out of dire poverty. But it has also increased competition faced by workers and companies.上海千花坊品茶微信

The partial globalization of 1945-1975 worked great for average workers in the West. For much of this period, a young perso

n could get a high-paying and apparently secure job in a factory that would allow him to live a middle-income lifestyle.上海千花坊品茶微信

It’s very hard to believe now, but in 1980, the US city with the highest average wage was Flint, Michigan, followed closely by Detroi

t. Other leading cities in terms of wages were Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, Youngstown and Cleveland – all上海千花坊品茶微信

of which were centers of industry and manufacturing. At that time, San Jose, the center of then quite small Silicon V

alley was fourth, San Francisco sixth, and capital Washington was eighth. New York City did not make the top 10.

Many people in the US and Western Europe look back nostalgically on those 30 years aft

er WWII when artificial limits on global competition protected extremely high-paying manufacturing jo

bs. It is very sad to see only empty, rusting factories where thousands of people used to work.

It’s tempting to use tariffs or other protectionist measures to try to

retain the companies that provide these high-paying manufacturing jobs. But, most o

ften the protections just lead to unproductive companies, declining innovation, and slowing GDP growth.

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上海会所

ing addresses the 1上海会所女神会所 Council of Heads of

President calls 上海会所女神会所on members to support regional links to Belt and Road Initiative

Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should follow the trend of economic globalization and

build the SCO into a community with a shared future, President Xi Jinping said on Friday.

Xi made the remark while delivering a speech at the 19th

meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan’s capital.

SCO members should promote the multilateral trading system, buil

d an open global economy and put forward more policies to facilitate trade and investment, he said.

Xi proposed making full use of cooperation platforms such as the China Intern

ational Import Expo to promote the openness, exchanges and integration of regional economies.

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上海419论坛

Literature fest sparks rural rebootLiterature Prize anliang Li

An event set up by film director Jia Zhangke featuring leading proponents of a school of writing from Shanxi aims to place the province on China’s literary map.

Jiajiazhuang village in Fenyang, Shanxi province, sits around 600 kilometers southwest of Beijing.

Once known for its collective economy that helped draw its population out of poverty, it has now gained another label than

ks to film director Jia Zhangke, who was born in 35ang in 1970, just a short distance from the village.

Jia has devoted much of his time to regenerating the area’s cultural legacy, not only through movies, but also through literature.

To do that, Jia set up the first Lyuliang Literature Festival, which was held from May 9 to 16

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贵族宝贝

No evidence was found to show Chinese monetary

 authority intervention in foreign exchange markets over the past se

veral months, according to the US Treasury’s semiannual foreign-exchange report to Congress.

The May report summarized that China’s growth appears to be stabilizing on the back of recently enhanced supportive measures.

The report expanded the number of countries it scrutinizes for curre

ncy manipulation to 21 from 12. Countries with a current account surplus with the US

equivalent to 2 percent of GDP were put on the watch list, compared with 3 percent of GDP before.

China didn’t meet the “currency manipulator” criteria listed by the US Treasury, but Washington will continue asse

ssing the RMB’s performance given China’s large trade surplus with the US, the report said.

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上海乌托邦

When the desired train tickets are not available at the tick

et booking site and the app of the China Railway Corporation, a person can use the “waiting” function, and the system will add the wanted ticket information to a list.

One person could make an order for three tickets in the waiting list, and the function will be

free and much more efficient than other third-party software to grab tickets, according to the operator.

When ticket buyers cancel or change their tickets, the system will allocate the returned tickets to waiting buyers on the list.

To use this function, people have to pass a verification process on their status through facial recognition.

They will have to prepay the maximum price for each ticket, and once the

y have obtained the tickets, the difference from the actual fare will be refunded. If they f

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上海乌托邦

Pei was born in Guangzhou and raised in Hong Kong and

anghai, before moving to the US in 1935. He studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard’s design s

chool, and spent the early years of his career designing buildings for a real estate developer in New York.

Pei is known for his affection towards precise geometry and design details. He also ha

d a strong reverence for light, as shown in the famous pyramid of the Louvre Museum.

His significant works include the Jacob K Javits Convention Center in Manhattan (1979 to 1986), the Morto

n H Meyerson Symphony Center in Dallas (1982 to 1989), the Bank of China Tower in Hong K

ong (1982 to 1989), and the Museum of Islamic Art in Doha, Qatar (2003 to 2008).

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上海乌托邦

In Forbes’s ranking, 309 of the world’s top 2,000 largest publ

 public companies are from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong.

The United States has 575 companies, the most among the 61 countries and regions involved in the ranking.

Japan is third-largest contributor, with 223 companies joining in the list.

This year marks the 17th release of the Global 2000 ranking since it was first published by Forbes in 2003, when the Unite

d States was home to 776 companies in the list while the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong only had 43.

Industry-wise, banks and diversified finance make

up most of the list, with 453 companies appearing on it, followed by tech ind

ustry and construction industry, with 184 and 123 companies on the list, respectively.

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贵族宝贝

ese civilization greatly promotes progress of human civilization

China’s paper-making, gunpowder, printing, compass, calendar, philosophy and people-oriented view have exerted profound i

nfluence in the world and greatly promoted the development process of human civilization.

Chinese civilization is an open system formed during constant exchanges and mutual learning with other civilizations.

In the future, China will surely embrace the world with a more open p

osture and contribute more dynamic civilization achievements to the world.

Confidence of civilization urged

Asia should enhance confidence of civilization.

We should keep exchanges and mutual learning with other civilization

s in the world, and strive to continue writing new brilliant chapters of Asian civilizations.

We should consolidate the cultural foundation of jointly building Asian com

munity of shared future and a community with a shared future for humanity.

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娱乐地图

anqing and Zhangjiakou are preparing another venues, in

including existing ski resorts and some newly built projects, to host all eight Olympic snow sports

in 2022. The three clusters will be connected by a new high-speed railway, which will be completed by t

he end of this year. It looks beyond the Games to boost future winter sports tourism.

According to the organizing committee, all 26 venues for 2022 will be ready by June next year with the f

irst test event, a World Cup skiing series, scheduled to be held in Yanqing’s National Alpine Skiing Center in February.

About 90 percent of the earth moving work for the mountain center is now complete, and a 53-hecta

re forest reserve has been built nearby for transplantation of all the trees affected by the construction.

“The preparations are ready to step up to the next stage, from planning to

the readiness phase. Beijing is ahead in the race against time,” said Liu Yumin, dire

ctor of the planning, construction and sustainable development department of the 2022 Olympic Organizing Committee.

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